Loss and Gain of the ASI in 2021 vs the Loss in 2022

 

This ASI chart shows the All time high in 2021 of 9025.82 on the 29th 0f Jan'21 and the fall to the yearly low of 6852.64 on the 19th of March 2021. During the drop, the ASI lost 2173.18 points which is a % loss of 24.08%. Thereafter the Index rallied up to a new All time high of 13593.04 on the 18th of Jan'22. This is a massive gain of 6740.40 points, a gain of 98.36%. After this stupendous gain, the Index dropped sharply to make a yearly low of 6724.39 on the 27th of April 2022, which is a loss of 6868.65 or a 50.53% drop. The fall and the duration of the drop in 2022 were larger than 2021. However, since 27th April 2022, the Index has recovered extending over 30% thus far. 

ASI on 04.12.2022 vs 12.11.2021

 ASI as of 12.11.2021

ASI as of 04.01.2022

Update 8 - COMB - Buy when others Fear.....RCA Strategy has paid off!!!

 RCA STRATEGY 

In December of last year I truly believed that the year ahead is going to benefit the Equity Markets. However due to the challenges that Investors would encounter I initiated a strategy of Accumulation, instead of a Buy and Hold Strategy. Also I wanted to employ a planned out method. Hence I used a fixed volume strategy and a set rupee amount strategy called RCA Strategy. We encountered some of the most extraordinary events that we never expected to happen. Despite the challenges the 2 strategies proved beyond doubt that planned investment approach is rewarding.

The present status of the 2 strategies are given below:

Fixed Volume Amount -

Fixed Volume = 5000 shares at a time

No of Shares Accumulated:            390,000

Scrip dividend:                                   6,901

Total Shares:                                    396,901

Amount Invested:                       31,121,196.80

Dividends received:                         345,000.00

Nett Invested Amount:               30,776,199.80

Cost Per Share:                                         77.54

Closing Price as at 12.08.2020:                81.00

Nett Sale Price:                                         80.09

Nett Sale Value:                          31,788,879.58

Nett Gain/(Loss):                          1,012,682.35

% Gain/(Loss)                                            3.29

Set Rupee Amount or RCA Strategy -

Fixed Rupee Amount = Rs. 500,000.00 at a time

No. of Shares Accumulated:                 515,583

Scrip Dividend:                                         9,110

Total Shares:                                          524,693

Amount Invested:                        39,500.000.00

Dividends Received:                        378,820.10

Nett Amount Invested:                39,121,179.90

Cost Per Share:                                          74.56

Closing Price as at 12.08.2020:                81.00

Nett Sale Price:                                         80.09

Nett Sale Value:                           42,022,628.12 

Nett Gain/(Loss):                           2,901,448.23

% Gain/(Loss)                                             7.42

The next stage of accumulation will only be if the prices fall below the 2 average prices.

Targets Placed are - 

 Ave Price + 50% or PE of 9.8  (EPS as at 31.12.2019 was 16.80, which can be lower in 2020).

GRAN Price Action - What happens if Wave C is gonna match Wave A?

ASI and many Counters have witnessed 3 Wave structures mostly when there had been steep falls. This formation can be witnessed in GRAN as well. Present support is 47, resistance was 53, which was re-tested today. In fact we saw the prices trying to close above 53, but failed for the day. If a breakout is to happen then the wave A length could be seen in the wave C and that equation is at 58.40. You can see that in two ways of measurements drawn in the chart. If some one wants to enter at 53 to target 58.4, the risk to reward ratio would be 1to1 given the support at 47. If we see a strong movement in prices the Wave C could test one and a half times of the wave A. That too has happened in the past. All this wont happen in isolation without macro and micro fundamental effects. Hence entering to a trade needs a lot of thinking, and a strict stop loss at 47.

Commercial Bank - Price Action

Amidst haemorrhage in this counter there was a reversal to the up. But that doesn't mean every thing is well. However it's worth a following. If the uptrend which we see now to continue, the price has to break above 71.90 and resume the trend. Also with above average volumes. IF the price is trending within a range, then the low of 60.50 and a high of 71.90 will turn out to be a painful consolidation. If we see the prices breaking out we can expect it to test 77 to 85 range.  20 EMA at present is 66.90. That is also an area which could act as a support.

AEL - M-REV, how is it now

It was on the 8th we saw that all conditions were met to initiate a Buy based on the M-REV Strategy on AEL. 6 market days thereafter, as of today the 16th of June we can see the prices are consolidating within a bullish flag formation. We need to see the prices moving above the upper trend line of the Flag-Channel, to expect the prices to test 19/50 or even 20/=. A Sell will be initiated only when the conditions are met to Sell. In this Strategy we do not plan for a stop price as the Take Profit and Stop Price both will be made based on the said Sell Conditions. In terms of Price action the present support is at 16/=, and another strong support is at 15/=. Whoever wants to take a trade other than this strategy can place stop loss levels at those prices.

AEL - M-REV Strategy as at 22.05.2020 MACD crossed above zero line. Wait for other signals!!!