2ND BEST PERFORMER IN THE SL 20 - NDB BANK PASSED THE 12 MONTH HIGH HEADING TOWARDS FEBRUARY 2011 HIGHS

During the present up trend commencing from the 28th Nov'13, NDB bank is the 2nd best performer, with a return of 19% up to 10th Jan '14. Today it hit the new high of 185, surpassing the 12 month high of 182.50, which was the on the 10th May 2013.

As it broke out of this significant level, and if it closes above the 182.50 mark, today's closing  would become the major resistant  level to be broken, and head towards the Feb 2011 highs of 190 to 195. However the volume traded so far today is around 60,000, which is below Friday's level of 329,000. But it is about double the average daily volume of around 39,000, during the 30 days.

SP SL 20 SHOULD PERFORM FOR THE ASI TO GO UP

 Most would agree with me, if I say that the stocks in the SP SL20 should go up for the ASI to move up.

Based on the various types of information majority expects the ASI to do well during 2014. Then there must be stocks that should take the lead to make it a reality. There are many stocks that may perform well in 2014, which will happen without a doubt. But most importantly, if many of the index heavy weights aren't contributing to this bullish trend, this expectation will not be a reality. In this context I strongly believe that, it is highly important to monitor the performance of the SP SL20 index, and the counters in the index, as to how best they are leading the rally.

The following table comprises of all the stocks in the SP SL20, along with the 2 indexes, namely the ASI and the SP SL20. Here I have taken only the points and the % for these, without prices or values, as they can be viewed separately through charts.

The time period is from 28th Nov'13 to 10th Jan'14. The reason is because the  present trend opened on the 28th Nov'13.

As you can see it had been DFCC that has given the highest return of 27.01%, during this period, as such I would like to give you the Chart of DFCC, and will be posting the rest of the charts, in the next few days.

Pe for DFCC is 8.06 times, while the sector pe is 8.9, and the price to book value is 1.11 times( Sector pbv is 1.4). If you look at this chart you could observe that the price is almost nearing the top of the 12 months. The highest was 153, on the 10th of May'13, and the close on the 10th of Jan'13 was 150. Looking at the RSI it is now at 86.8, and based on the Fibonacci Extentions from the high on the 10th May'13, 138.2% is around 166, and 161..8% is 174.9, on the down side the 61.8% is 139 to 140.  A break out to the top is a close above 153 with a strong volume. Break out from the bottom is a close below 145, which is acting like a pivot right now.

ASI present trend

As I mentioned previously the present trend commenced on the 28th Nov'13, and we have now successfully broken out of  6000 points, which is gonna be the short term support. Based on the Fibonacci extensions between 28th Nov'13 to the 3rd Jan'14(the day we saw the ASI testing the 6000 resistance), the next resistance is at 6080 points which is not far off, and given the present momentum, we could see it's breached tomorrow. But the next resistance will be 6176 which must be broken. If we fail then the support at 6000 and a resistance of 6100 will be tested, before a move up. The worst case will be a break down of the 6000 points and heading to 5880 to 5900 support. As it is the present trend has yielded 329.61 points or 5.74% in 27 days.

Market Update - 3.01.2014, the spinning top ASI.

The ASI started 2014 with a bullish sentiment. WoW the market edged up 61.02 points or 1.03%. The week had 4 days of trading and all 4 days we saw higher lows. The last candle was a spinning top, which can not be used to conclude as a trend reversal. As it was the last day of the week, we must closely monitor the next weeks performance as well.

5946.47 was a significant point that was to be breached which was the close of the 21st of October'13. In fact on 2 consecutive days the the bulls tried to reach the major psychological level of 6000, during the 17th and 21st october'13, with highs of 5982.08, 5979.71 points respectively, but could not. Then on the 25th of october '13, it reached a high of 5955.68, and again on the 31st oct'13 it reached a high of 5957.30, and on the 1st of nov'13, did a doji reversal at 5965.26. After all these vain efforts during that period the ASI has moved to the 6000, territory now, by kissing the 6000 mark at 6007.79, to finally close at 5973.80. If the market breaks the 6000 with vigor, it could reach the 6100, but if it fails then the support around 5950 to 5900 will be tested.

  

Year ended 31st December 2013 - Trends and stats

The year 2013 had 242 days of Trading. The no of red days were 106, and 136 days were green. The year open was at 5642.87, the high was 6494.09, low was 5604.59, and closed at 5912.78. The annualized return was + 4.78%.

There had been 9 trends during the year( 5 up trends, 4 down
trends), and the following are the details:

1). 6TH DEC'12 TO 18TH JAN'13 - UPTREND

TREND OPEN - 5327.10
TREND CLOSE - 5875.77
 NO. DAYS - 28 DAYS
 INCREASE - 10.3% 

2). 21ST JAN'13 TO 5TH MAR'13 - DOWN TREND

TREND OPEN 5879.39
TREND CLOSE 5626.27
NO. DAYS - 29 DAYS
DECREASE (4.31%)

3). 6TH MAR'13 TO 23TH MAY'13 - UPTREND

TREND OPEN - 5625.63
TREND CLOSE - 6488.85
NO.DAYS - 54 DAYS
INCREASE - 15.34%

4). 27TH MAY'13 TO 17TH JULY'13 - DOWN TREND

TREND OPEN - 6494.09
TREND CLOSE - 5982.35
NO.DAY - 38 DAYS
DECREASE - (7.88%)

5). 18TH JULY'13 TO 16TH AUG'13 - UPTREND

TREND OPEN - 5981.38
TREND CLOSE - 6233.21
NO.DAYS - 20 DAYS
INCREASE - 4.21%

6). 19TH AUG'13 TO 9TH SEPT'13 - DOWN TREND

TREND OPEN - 6234.16
TREND CLOSE - 5605.26
NO.DAYS - 15 DAYS
DECREASE - (10.09%)

7). 10TH SEPT'13 TO 17TH OCT'13 - UPTREND

TREND OPEN - 5695.37
TREND CLOSE - 5976.51
NO.DAYS - 25 DAYS
INCREASE - 4.94%

8). 27TH OCT'13 TO 27TH NOV'13 - DOWNTREND

TREND OPEN - 5977.38
TREND CLOSE - 5744.67
NO.DAYS - 28 DAYS
DECREASE - (3.9%)

9). PRESENT TREND - 28TH NOV'13 TO 31ST DEC'13 - UPTREND

TREND OPEN - 5744.29
TREND CLOSE - 5912.78
NO.DAYS - 22 DAYS
INCREASE - 2.93%