Tuesday, March 14, 2017

The Seven Golden Rules of Investing

Being successful at anything requires following a set of rules. Good rules are the accumulation of decades of wisdom summed up into the few components that really matter. This course will teach you the basics of investing in a way anyone can understand.

 Here's what you'll learn in 16 MIN
 Rule #1: Think Long Term
 Rule #2: Good Companies Make Good Investments
 Rule #3: Buy With a Margin of Safety
 Rule #4: Do Your Own Homework
 Rule #5: Don't Follow the Herd
 Rule #6: Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket
 Rule #7: Never Stop Learning  

Successful football players win because they avoid penalties and because of the way they train. Successful students get A's because of the way they study. Investing in the stock market is no different, except that when you succeed in investing you make money, a lot of money.

 Rule #1: Think Long Term

Trying to time the stock market or taking big risks to "double your money in a year" is at best speculating, and at worst gambling.

Some one said that "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas" A fitting tribute for Stock Market Gamblers too.

Those who are able to successfully navigate the stock market are not speculators or gamblers, they are investors. Investors know they can beat the market because they think differently, they think smarter, and they think long-term.

Believe it or not, this long-term thinking advantage is known as "time horizon arbitrage", and it means that if investors learn to think long-term and can see beyond the daily and quarterly noise, they can gain a real upper hand.

 As per Warren Buffet “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.

 Rule #2: Good Companies Make Good Investments

 nvesting is not like placing a bet on whether the Cowboys will cover the spread against the Packers in the big game.
Investing is not trying to get the quarterly press release a microsecond before the other person. It is not even about trying to predict which stock that you think will go up the most.
The most consistent way to generate returns is through the principles of Fundamental Investing.

What is Fundamental Investing?

It is buying a tangible piece of a business, also called a share of that business and adding it to your portfolio.
Your investment portfolio (the collection of all the different shares you own) is only as good as the sum of the companies in that portfolio.

Its kind of like building a team. Not every player is going to have a good year, but together they can make it happen.

So how do you build an effective team?
Buy shares of high quality companies at reasonable prices, and you'll end up with a high quality portfolio with less risk. It's as simple as that.
Good companies are ones that have a unique advantage that others can't copy. They generate high returns on capital and don't need to borrow a lot because their business is self financing.

It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

Rule #3: Buy With a Margin of Safety

In investing, a margin of safety is formed when one buys an investment at less than its value, while using conservative assumptions.
The idea of a margin of safety is that you want to buy a business at a price that is low enough that your assessment could be completely wrong and you wouldn't lose much.
Its almost like rigging a coin flip so that it goes "Heads I win; tails, I don’t lose much"
 
 Rule #4: Do Your Own Homework

 There is no substitute for your own work.

 Buying a stock because Your Boss recommended it, or because your uncle recommended it, or the stock chart looks good is a sure way to lose money.

 Successful investors know what they own. They buy stocks of companies with products they believe in and they go the extra mile to analyze the financials of the company to make sure they're not missing anything.

 Remember, most of the extraordinary gains made in the stock market come after a stock is punished or after it has already risen a lot, but you're not going to have the conviction to stick with it unless you really know the company.

 Its not enough to just buy stocks because they were recommended to you, "You have to know what you own, and why you own it."

Rule #5: Don't Follow the Herd

The typical buyer's decision is usually heavily influenced by those around him. Thus, he ends up buying when others are buying, and selling when others are selling.
But that's just not the way its done. In fact, following others is a recipe that is bound to backfire.

 Investors thought Stocks would never lose value in 2010 - 2011, and went crazy. Don't be that guy!

 As much as we'd like to think that individual investors are rational human beings, the truth is, the market can sometimes be a fanatical mess of everyone trying to get in on the next big thing.

 Then when the bubble bursts everyone loses their shirts because they didn't take the time to do the research themselves.

 he best investors are ones that can fight this urge remain calm through a storm, and remain on the sidelines through a bubble.

 ”Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful!”

  Rule #6: Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket


Diversification is one of the most critical strategies for your portfolio so that if one stock blows up, it won't sink the entire ship.
As much as we think we won't make a mistake, we will. Even the masters do and that is why we can't put all our eggs in one basket. There's power in diversification.


However, research suggests that 90% of diversification benefits can be obtained in most markets with a portfolio of just over 20 stocks. The more you diversify beyond that, the less you know about each investment (Rule #4: Do Your Own Homework).

Your first and second best ideas are always better than your 100th best idea, so while diversifying is crucial, make your best ideas count!

 "Try to avoid buying a little of this or that when we are only lukewarm about the business or its price. When we are convinced as to attractiveness, we believe in buying worthwhile amounts”.

 In other words, go big or go home!

  Rule #7: Never Stop Learning

 Perhaps the most important rule is learn, learn more, and then keep learning.
What makes investing fun is that the markets are always different and companies are constantly changing.

 Never stop learning about businesses, never stop learning from other great investors, and never stop learning from your own mistakes.

Humility and an eagerness to learn are two traits found in all of the great investors.




Thursday, March 9, 2017

COMB.N.0000 - Swing low at the support

Swing low on Com Bank voting was formed at 135.00, which is a support area. But with the pending rights issue one should trade this with caution. But for any one interested in collecting it for the long haul it would be ideal to enter now.


COCR.N.0000 - Swing low at 42.20

Commercial Credit Plc has formed a swing low at 42.20. As indicated in the chart below, you could enter into a short term trade at 43.50 with a strict stop loss anything below 42.20.


TJL.N.0000 - Double Bottom and a Swing Low

Tee Jay Lanka Plc, as you can see in the chart below has come down to 37 twice, thus forming a double bottom. Also a swing low is evident with the bottom being 37. This warrants a short term trade. The chart has the trade idea.


Tuesday, March 7, 2017

DTS - 07.03.2017


ASI - Not wanting to go below 6100......but how long?

2016 was a pretty bad year for the Market, with the Index plummeting down to 5800 points. If 2016 was bad then 2015 was worse, where we saw the index falling from grace. Period from June 2012 to January of 2015 the Index recovered and it was a graceful uptrend. In that sense worst started happening from that time to date. However something wonderful happened when the Market fell from this so called grace, it became humble. How? By bringing down the Fundamental valuations to that of POST WAR period. This humbleness brought humble participants to the market. They are the Foreigners and the SMALL RETAIL LONG TERM INVESTORS.These are the only 2 types we saw in existence during the War torn periods, and now they have come back.
The Foreign contribution  is huge in terms of turn over, but it confines to a few accounts, in contrast the number of Retail Long term investors are many but the turn over contribution runs into Tuppence compared to the turnover contribution of the few foreign Funds.The sense of busyness that comes in to play in a thriving Sri Lankan market happens when big turn overs flow from short term large traders, who would carry the brunt of risk taking and eventually end up within the confines of manipulation IF they do not play the game by the rules. The ones to follow them will be the LARGE RETAIL SHORT TERM TRADERS. These Large retail traders aren't like the Small retail long term investors. They put huge money, most of the time risking every penny they could scrape and extend their gluttony by borrowing through margins as well. This high risk high reward players cannot be found in the present market even if you want to search them by going from  house to house. It wont happen until the market gets the right blessings.

In this background how long we would see the support at 6100 is not clear. But the ASI need to hold above 5800 points to avoid a trend breakdown, and should hold above 6000 points in the short term to bring hope and strength. At present that strength can be maintained as long as the Fundamental valuations of the counters continue to the future. At the moment the pessimism and fear bulldozed by external forces will not help to believe in the HOPE or STRENGTH, which will only happen by visually seeing it happening in their performance on a quarterly basis.

Until the ASI is holding above 6100, 6000 and 5800, the short term hope for an uptrend is in tact. Therefore the present level suggest a semblance of hope for the Bulls, and a gunny load of hope for the Bears.


Sunday, March 5, 2017

ASI - Weakness indicates a down side......but massive turnover needs to be watched

ASI broke down, bringing dismal hopes to the remaining traders. But the turnover for the week was something to be watched. Turnover was 6.1 billion, highest recorded since February 2017. This included some strategic transfers, therefore not very bullish but comforting to those who did the deals. Another interesting development amidst all the pessimism was the Dec '16 overall Corporate Profit performance registering an increase of 14% over the '15 figures. This was commendable in an environment of rising interest rates. But the present and the forward quarters obviously would be challenging for the Corporates.

RSI too dropped WoW from 47.2 points to 39.68. We have seen RSI's below 20's as such this is not the lowest. 6100 points on the ASI is psychologically important but who will support it? Let's watch?


WTS - 03.03.2017


Loss and Gain of the ASI in 2021 vs the Loss in 2022

  This ASI chart shows the All time high in 2021 of 9025.82 on the 29th 0f Jan'21 and the fall to the yearly low of 6852.64 on the 19th ...