RCL - Need to form a base before the next high

Quarter Ending Sept'19, the NAV of RCL.N.0000 was 211.00. The EPS for 6 months is 8.33, and 5.24 for the 3 months. Going forward we could expect their profits to keep moving higher given the improved business out look for their sector. Incidentally they finished 2019 FY with an EPS of 23.75, despite them showing only 7.12 for the 6 months. Given these scenarios, we could see a better profit outlook for the counter for the 12 months. More importantly this had been one of the best dividend paying counters in the bourse, but with subdued business out look during the past the payout saw a reduction. They have been paying 2 dividend payments anywhere between January and May of every year. That's about 1 to 6 months from now. Only thing is that their total dividend payout per share during the last FY was a meager 4.00. If they feel that the business out look is better, they might increase that amount this year around.

Like many counters RCL too moved into a new Up Trend, but it started only from September whilst the overall market was from May'19. However it is now trading in front of a major resistance zone of 100.00 to 101.00. Going by the momentum in the counter, I expect a short term support any where between 89.00 and 93.00, before the next test of the said resistance zone of 100.00 to 101.00. Price and volume action during that breakout will determine their next move forward.

Strategy - Buy on Dips. Wait for the retracement.
No stop loss as the out look is Bullish.

AEL - Long Consolidation anticipated. Do Not hold if You have no GUTS. Buy on Dips

AEL as a Company in the Construction Space is poised to out perform the KPI's in the Sector. This expectation is bringing in a lot of attention to the counter in an unprecedented way. Huge volumes are changed hands during the lower levels in May to the present highs. But we now see a critical area of resistance for the counter. During the 900 days long rally we saw during May 2012 to June 2014 when the prices rose from a low of 13.50 to the all time high of 40.20, the prices went through a long and tiring consolidation around the same zone that it has now moved into. I expect it to trend side ways in this zone between 21.80 and 24.10 with occasional tests in the zone between 20.00 and 21.00. Until a breakout above 24.10 on closing basis coupled with massive volumes, the next levels of resistance points will not be tested.

Strategy - Buy on Dips.
No Stop Loss is needed as the Forward Out Look is Bullish.
Most Importantly note that if You do not have the guts then please don't buy.
An ideal time to accumulate in stages if you are holding the stock at a higher average cost. Also if you have got into it after May'19 and wandering what to do, be patient and do not exit in full. If you have exited or sold in part, collecting at lower end of the zone or within the next support zone of 20.00 to 21.00, is not a bad idea at all.

DPL - Dankotuwa Porcelain PLC - 2017තේ මාර්තු සිට ජූලි දක්වා තිබුන රැලි එකෙ රෙසිස්ටන්ස් ඒරියාස් වල නැවතත්. Prices are testing the Resistance Areas of 2017 March to July Rally

DPL Prices 2017තේ මර්තු මාසේ සිට ජූලි මාසය දක්වා රු. 5/30 සිට 10/40 (96%) දක්වා ඉහල ගියා. එම කාලය තුල මිල ගණන් වතාවල් කිහිපයකදීම Resistance Areas වල consolidate වෙමින් සහ එම Channels strong volumes එක්ක Breakout කරමින් ඉහල ගිය බව අපිට දකින්න පුලුවන්. මම පහත share කර තිබෙන chart එකේ දකුනු පස කහ පැහැති box එක ඇතුලේ එම Rally එකේ mirror image එකක් දකින්න පුලුවන්. එම Rally එකේ අපිට පෙනෙනවා රු. 8/00 ත්, රු. 8/60 ත් අතර Consolidation එකක් වෙලා තියෙන බව. ගිය සතියෙ (18.11.2019 - 22.11.2019), අපි දැක්ක DPL prices රු. 8/00 breakout කරලා රු. 8/60 test කරන බව. ඉන් පසු රු. 8/00 support කරන්න දැන් උත්සහ දරනවා. රු. 8/00 ත්, රු. 8/60 ත් අතර support area එක මිලෙහි ඉදිරි ගමනට ඉතා වැදගත්. රු. 7/40 ත් රු. 7/50 ත් අතර gap එකක් පිහිටලා තියෙන බව ඕනෑ  කමින් chart එක බලන කෙනෙක්ට තේරුම් ගන්න පුලුවන්.  එම area එක present support එක බව විශේෂ‍යෙන් මතක තියා ගන්න ඕනෙ. කවුරු හරි DPL එක්කහු කරන

කෙනෙක් ඉන්නවානම් මේ support area එක ඉතා ව්දැගත්. ඒ වගේම ඇරන් ඉන්න අය තව එකතු කරන්න අදහස් කරනවානම් රු. 8/00 ත් රු.7/40 ත් අතර එක්කහු කරගන්න පුලුවන් කම තියෙනවා. Trader කෙනෙක් නම් රු. 7/40 ත් රු. 7/20 අතර stop loss එක දාන්න බලාගන්න ඕනේ.
රු. 8/60 breakout වුනාට පස්සෙ 2017 next resistance එක වන රු. 9/20 ත්, fib trend extensions වල 100% extension එක වන රු. 9/80 area එක test කරන්න වෑයම් කරයි. ඉන් පස්සෙ breakout වුනොත් රු. 10/40 ටෙස්ට් කරන්න පුලුවන් කම තියෙනවා. එය සිදු වන්න Company performance සහ overall market sentiment එකේ වර්දනයන් වදගත් වෙනවා. ඒවාගෙම NAV සහ EPS මේ chart එකේ සදහන් කර තියෙනවා. ඒ තුලින් company එක 2017 සහ 2019 perform කරල තියෙන හැටි බලාගන්න පොඩි පිටුවහලක් වෙනවා. ඒ ratios තව තේරුම් කරගන්න ඕනේ නම් තම තමාගේ Stock Broker ගෙන් විමසා දැන ගන්න පුලුවන්. Technical Analysis පාවිච්චි කරන අය Trading Rules අනුව Trade කරනවා නම් මේ ratios guidance එකක් හටියට පාවිච්චි කරන්න පුලුවන්.

DPL had a rally in March to July 2017 between a price range of 5/30 and 10/40 (96%). During this rally prices had made several consolidations and breakouts with strong volumes. We can see a mirror image of this rally in the light yellow box on the right side within the chart given here. One major Consolidation had been between 8/00 and 8/60. If you fast forward to the present we can see that the prices have tested both 8/00 and 8/60 during the week ended on the 22nd November 2019. The next major consolidation would occur once a breakout happens above 8/60 with strong volumes. After the breakout the price could test 9/20 and may extend upto 9/80. The consolidation range therefore will be between these levels of 9/20 and 9/80. A breakout thereafter could test the 2017 high of 10/40. Strong Company performance and increased confidence in the overall market will certainly help the said breakout. You can see the NAV and EPS levels during 2017 rally and during 2019 for you to get a basic idea of the ratios during important periods. This is primarily for traders to decide on the trading plan. Investors may contact their respective brokers for  further research on fundamentals pertaining to the stock. If you pay close attention to the chart, you will see that there is a gap between 7/40 and 7/50, which is a key support area for the counter. Those who wish to enter now, you may accumulate between 8/00 and 7/40. This area is important for those who intend buying on dips as well. For traders however must use the range between 7/20 and 7/40 as the stop loss.