Sunday, February 10, 2019

ASI Weekly Report with a Difference - 08.02.2019

ASI did not progress commendably well during the week ending 8th of February 2019. It dropped about 18 points WoW. Turnover including crossings ( Deals over 20Mn) was 1.9Bn, dropped from 3.3Bn of the previous week. For an active market the weekly Turnover must be above 5Bn at least, that too without Crossings. 1Bn and over without crossings will be a good figure. We are long way from seeing that.

Traders lost the freedom they enjoyed during the previous 2 weeks. The number of Trades dropped to 13,248 during the week from 22,854 of the previous week. But some counters became active towards the latter part of the week. It will be important to watch those in the new week ahead.

Counters with over 100 trades were 31, from 51 of the previous week, whilst the counters over 300 trades were 7, from the 12 of the last week. Stocks with 600 trades dropped to 2 from 4 of the previous week. This is all because of the consolidation effect of many stocks that had faced with resistance at key Price points. If you are not prepared to Stop, you will never be able to trade consistently when a consolidation is in force. This is because you have many traders who are still using other people's money to trade. Simply put, they are trading on borrowed funds. When many of these Traders are not prepared to Stop Loss, they will get Forced Sold in the end. Therefore consolidations are areas where you need to be very particular about. Nothing would make you worry if you are prepared to stop loss, else you will certainly get frustrated and give up on trading. This has happened to many Traders. Be bold and stick to Trading with discipline, you will be rewarded consistently.


ASI Daily Chart

The present status of the ASI is very bearish, as many of the momentum indicators are downward biased. As such it can test the area around 5920 points. It will be interesting to see how soon it would take for the index to test that level. If the sentiments are to change to the better, that would be a relief. The new week must show a recovery if that's the case.


AEL Weekly Chart

It was on the 19th of last month that I shared a chart on AEL. You can see that here:

The most important indicator for this stock will be the Weekly Volumes. We saw a trend change in terms of the weekly volumes, with almost 1.2Mn shares changing hands. However this is below the 20WVA, which is at 2.8Mn shares. In my earlier post I gave an entry point at 14/00, which stands today as well. For some reason if the Price fall below 13/50, it will be disastrous, therefore you must stop your trade anytime it falls to 13/50. Increase in volumes towards the average of 2.8Mn, will confirm the upward trend which will then test the 15/00 to 16/00 Resistance zone. 


EXPO Weekly Chart

Despite Expo not being in the over 300 trades, the bullish movement in it will be important for the overall sentiment of the Market. The main shift witnessed was in the Volumes as the weekly volumes was over the 20 week Average. The present momentum could take the price to test 4/80. An entry at or below 4/40 is suggested, with a target at 4/80. At any time the price is to fall towards 4/00 will not be ideal, hence stop at 4/00.



MBSL Weekly Chart

My friend Farhan has shared is trade idea on MBSL, which can be found here:

Apart from that the important change can be seen in the Weekly Volumes, where it had been higher than the Weekly average for the 2nd week in a row. This is a clear signal that the accumulation is strong in the counter. Therefore the trade idea suggested by Farhan makes sense. That Trade Idea is as follows:

Buy - 10/40 - 10/50
Sell - 11/50 - 11/60
Stop - 9/80 - 9/90


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