ASI - The week ended with a ray of hope

ASI survived the turmoil that prevailed for three straight days, wherein more than 100 points were erased. Today's behaviour in the market helped the index to close on a positive note. As mentioned in the previous posts the fall of 38 points in 2 days and then a fall of 64 points yesterday was too much of a hit, just as much as the rise of the market from a low of 5800 points.It is interesting to keep a tab on the daily fluctuations based on points, as that is the first action that takes place for all analysis to happen.

Analyzing the previous 3 days will help us to conclude that the market dropped on average +/- 34 points per day, in that sense today's recovery of 29 points is almost as near as the fall. Thus it will be foolish to conclude that the market is going to go northwards from Monday onward. Even the Volumes and the Turnover do not contribute to a rapid market advance. If some one expected the market to fall 34 points continuously for 20 market days, means that for the month it would have fallen 680 points. Similarly if another expects the market to rise 29 points every day for a month, means that the market will go up 580 points for a month. Both these scenarios are not in line with the reality. Therefore a happy medium must be expected. But that happy medium is very difficult to be summarized, given the inertia we witness in the market. Nevertheless I expect the market to fluctuate between 100 and 200 points in the month of June. The momentum suggests a behaviour closer to 100 points than 200. In other wards the market could close 100 points minus of today's level or higher, i.e 6366 to the down side, and 6566 to the high. 

Weekly chart suggest that the market concluded the 1st wave to the up and moving within the counter trend. I do not say this based on elliott Wave count as I'm not an expert on that. But I do believe on at least 3 waves up or down, when spotted can be really profitable. My thinking of the 1st wave is purely based on that premise. Therefore the present retracement is a counter trend which could drag the market down to around 6380 points, before the 3rd wave to happen. At that point we could see the market retesting the recent high of 6700 points.