--- My 1st post on TJL was on the 13th of December 2015. At the time I expected the stock to re-test the high of 36.30, and if done it was a gain of 5%, from the lowest low of the 2nd of Dec '15 which was 33.80. As such it was on my watch list. Yesterday the 5th of January 2016, it hit a high of 36.30, but failed to close above with strong volumes. This is not bullish for the time being, unless it goes up and closes above 36.30 with strong volumes. Presently it is trading below the psychological resistant point of 36.00. Until and unless the stock moves beyond 36.00 and closes, I do not expect it to move into higher highs in the short term. Hence I will take it out of the watch list until an uptrend is visible ---
It is really great to see that the stock has now moved above that high of 36.30. However we can see that the stock is stressed out, which is very critical to be sorted out for the counter to re-energize and keep extending the up move. This is the reason why the price took a big hit since the 5th of January 2016. We can see that the price re-testing 36.30 on the 5th Jan '16, and nose diving to a low of 28.80 by the 19th Jan '16. That was a hit of 7.50 in a matter of 9 days. A 21% fall in that short period was the first instance for this counter since 2012. Thereafter the stock rallied 19.4% from 28.80 to 34.40 within 12 market days. For the next 21 days it went through a painful fall from 34.40 to a low of 27.50. It took 55 market days for the stock to break 36.30.
Therefore I do not expect the stock to rally the way it did since low of 2012. The stock had trade above the 200 day moving average from August 2012 right until January 2016. That is more than 41 months. From now onward I expect the stock to trade with many swings, and volatility. The present trend extension can be tested between 37.70 and 38.00, whilst the support is between 34 and 35.70. This counter in my opinion is a stock for the long term, but with a trend twisting from a rally to a choppy phase it will allow traders also to squeeze some juice out, provided you wait for ideal pull backs and corrections.
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