Monday, February 15, 2016

ASI - Weak, and failed to hold 6311 points. But I'm bullish on the long term

61.8% Fibonacci retracement that stood at 6311 points failed to support the market. However 6265 points, which is the 1000 day simple moving average managed to hold today. The next support is at 6235 points which was the present swing low. This happened on the 19th January during the period where there was a major global sell off. If the index can not hold that then it may not be the best case scenario for the market.
Thin volumes and relatively inactive market participation is not looking well for the traders, but suits well for the value pickers, who are the frequent participants in the market at present. The most notable feature in the present context is that the investor who has the holding capacity can also book short term profits. Any one who wishes to come in now must consider that as a strategy. Also hoping for double digit returns in the shortest period is not the best in the present environment, and must look for small short term returns that will translate in to an attractive % return when annualized.
Experience has taught me that times like these are ideal for the long term players, and I still maintain that we will enjoy great times WITHIN the next 2 to 5 years, where the market can re-write history. But it is certainly not for the fainthearted.

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