ASI - 7000 points before the year end.

Bullish expectations emanating from all around has contributed in pushing the ASI above 6500 points. The next stop will be 6715, and after then 6908, with that we would go back again to where we started in the beginning of this year. I expect a major correction of more than 200 points only when we come to the beginning of June. This would happen only if we have moved up super fast to 6900 before then. Within the the rally there are pit stops, but they may not be so great, because the present market is ONLY sentiment driven and not anything about the good profit and growth stories that would come from the Listed companies. However the COUNTERS WILL REALLY ROCK IF WE GET THE BOOST FROM THOSE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS.  ALSO WHEN WE SEE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN MANY SECTORS LIKE THE BANKS, MANUFACTURING AND DIVERSIFIED SECTORS EXPECT THE YEAR TO CLOSE ABOVE 7500 POINTS.

At any rate I firmly believe that the market is gonna close in and around 7000 points before the close of 2016, based on positive sentiments only.

Just like anybody I want to see the bigger counters deliver. This makes me feel that the market will end up around the said 7000 mark, as these major counters will not see big buying to really power boost them up. As these counters have been hammered for more than a year now, any big buying can help them and help us too.

I also believe that the GOSL must make things easier for the Economy to roll, which is the feeling many want to now slowly have. But given the KNEE JERKS the business society is encountering, the belief that this is really the case will take time. If things are really happening then this market is gonna be active beyond imagination. THIS IS MY YEARNING HOPE.

GRAN.N.0000 - Trade Break outs to cash in on trend extensions

In the context of the Sri Lankan Market I've experienced that trading on break outs are very profitable. Break outs are more effective when a stock is moving sideways, and consolidating within an uptrend. If the stock has established to be very bullish, and an uptrend is visible for an extended period, grabbing the opportunity that is given by a breakout is crucial.

I notice that this is the case with Grain elevators at the moment. I must first mention by the way side that this phenomena is not confined only to GRAN, as the present market is offering many stocks with potential breakout patterns.

Grain elevators was one of the best performers between 2010 and 2011. Thereafter the stock crashed to a low of 31.00 or so. The side way movement within a low of 31 to a high of 46 had then occurred from August 2013 to May of 2015. That was a painful 22 months or so. Since May 2015 the stock broke out of 46 and moved in to a new range. Thereafter it rallied from July to October 2015 from about 48 to as high as 120. That was a huge move within a tiny period. This made the stock to boil down once again and retrace all the way down to 52 also within a short period of roughly 5 months. Presently the stock is moving within a low of 52 to a high of 120. The trend right now is that the stock is trying to breakout of 82 to the upside, and if that happens then it could move upto 90 or thereabouts to see the sellers rallying in to pound it back down. The 100 DMA is the support at 80.90 and the 200 DMA is the resistance around 82.00. The important area that it should hold is 77.00, any dip below will completely change the trend from bullish to bearish.

ASI - No signs of a retracement. HEADING NORTH

Many a time I've been mentioning that the ASI could retrace from 6400 points to 6250 points. But given the market behaviour since 2014 I also did not expect major retracements within a trend. This time too it only paused in and around 6400 points and now will head northwards to test 6500 points.100 DMA is at 6430, but I'm not sure whether that will stop the trend. One major area is around 6579 points, which is the 100% extension of the fall from 6400 area to 5800 points. This is given in the Chart below. I expect the market to test that in the short term.

ASI - Inverted Head and Shoulders right shoulder is at 6255 points.

All Share Index is at a major formation, which is upward bias, as it is nicely forming an INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER. I would like to see the right shoulder being establish at 6255 area but today's close was almost exact at Feb high of 6422 range. Therefore it could retrace to form the right shoulder as said above, OR we may see a breakout from 6422 and head north to test the 100 DMA  of 6455 and thereafter the Jan top of 6552 points.

AEL - If it takes support above 22.00, expect to test 26.00 to 27.00

Access Engineering Plc had been trending up with relatively high volumes for the last 11 market days.
However the counter took resistance at 24.00, which was one of the major areas. But the volumes that traded on the fall  cannot be considered as large. Having said that, as the counter made a swing high at 24.00, we can expect a retracement which could be a pull back in the present uptrend. Given the trend I doubt it coming down below 22.00, and if I'm right then the stock will turn above 22.00. Thereafter if we see a break out of 24.00, then the next levels of resistance will be around 24.90, 25.90 and 27.00. My Buy call for the short term will either be at the swing low above 22.00 or a break out above 24.00 with strong volumes. Since both of these have not occurred as yet it warrants a close watch. The completion of a pull back could make an easy 10 to 15% short term gain.

ASI - Momentum does not suggest a fall below 6300 points

The momentum of the ASI for the last 23 days does not indicate a steep fall below 6300 points. It is clear that the pace of the market was too high, and a cooling off could be a welcome sign. But the trends we saw since 2014 has a pattern of not falling too much during a trend which is intact, like what we see at the moment.
Taxing the public by a Government can be referred to as NORMAL, but not the smartest. Unfortunately this is the case at present. The Taxes we did not see during the previous regime is emerging from the present set who were elected to Govern with Professionalism, and innovation. A Stock Market anywhere in the World will not accept Taxes with open arms. But the many unpopular trials if they are to be called innovative did not bring a favourable out come to any in the Country. This was evident in the Market as well. As such the Market fell more than 600 points. This was a great opportunity for the Investors who picked up shares at bargains. As such any further innovations by the present PROFESSIONAL SET can certainly open up bargains for those who would BUY on value.

But the traders will not find it the best, as they would not benefit if they were to trade the way they used to. DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY BY RUMOURS AND STORIES, as they have no place at present. Still if you want to go behind them, BE AWARE that only the rumour and news spreaders will benefit and any one who follows them would not benefit at all.

Trade with a plan, and let the plan make you trade.

LB Finance Plc - Watch out

Since September 2015 I have been posting a couple of articles on LB Finance. My Buy call was not short term centric but more of Long Term. Therefore a stop loss was not given. The fundamentals are very strong and this is one of the rearrest of Companies where you could have predicted the earnings just by looking at their quarterly statements. In September I said they could make an EPS of 20.00 for 12 months. In 9 months they did 18.00, so there is only 2.00 to cover. I do not think I'm a genius to predict like that. But I only cultivated a habit of tracking stocks, and follow them on technicals.

LFIN will send their final quarter results one of these days, and they will obviously show more than 20.00 in profits per share, and by May or June they will announce their dividends. The next best thing is that March to May had been a good period for Traders of LFIN. The prices now have trended up showing the same bullish momentum building up. However we do not see a lot of volumes trading, hinting that many of the holders of Volume don't like to part with it any time soon.

Also a stock of this caliber should have been bought into, on Dips. Who ever did it could make decent returns in the weeks to come.

Rs. 128 looks an area of resistance at the moment but doubt it will retrace too much this time once it hits that mark.

Near term target is around 137.20, and testing areas of 140.00 and 150.00 won't be a surprise, due to the strength in the Company.

DFCC - Short Term BUY increased to 144 - 150

Almost all the counters I painstakingly covered on the 8th of April 2016, went up more than the prices at which they should have been bought. I was more conservative to give entry levels on Price dips, than follow the trend.  But there are many stocks that is worth Buying even at the present prices to pluck returns of 5 to 10%.

One such counter is DFCC. With the banks rallying I expect it to follow the trend and give a nett return of 5 to 10% as follows:

Buy (Enter) - 146.00
5% Exit - 156.70
10% Exit - 164.10
Stop - 138.60

It is very important to follow the stop, as nothing is certain in life. Please manage your risk, and act with responsibility.

Should we be scared to Buy JKH - deserves 10% in the Short Term

JKH, all knows is the biggest Conglomerate in the Country. Many have now been talking negatively about it just like how they talked about the Market. Now the Market has rallied. The pundits have missed the Bus. WAIT AND SEE FOR THE SAME TO HAPPEN WITH JKH TOO.
The Market sentiment is improving to be Bullish, this will certainly stream over to JKH in the Short Term.
Weekly chart that I've given above shows that the MACD has cut the signal line for the 1st time since 4th of January 2016.
Weekly RSI is around 37, and it was in the 30's since the 1st Week of FEB 2015. This is certainly due to the bearish sentiments the counter had for such a long time. If you take the 3 quarters since June'15 EPS has been 1.91, 3.01 and 3.26, which in effect may not be the best, but this counter is famous for trading at higher multiples compared to the present numbers. There are many reasons and theories given for the prices to have got battered for such a long time, but this can not be the case always. Therefore with due respect to the negative sentiments/theories that are visible for the stock, no one could expect it to rally with the backing of fundamentals. This is why this counter should be looked at from a short term point of view.

My call on this is to Buy between 150 to 153.50
to Sell at 172.90 for a 10% return. And at 165.10 for a 5% return.
But strictly follow a stop loss at 146.00 and take a 5% hit if the trend goes against it.
I must also say that 146.00 is a good price for the long term collector of the stock.
TRADITIONALLY THEY GIVE THEIR FINAL DIVIDEND IN MAY.

ASI movement to 6400 points, can not be ruled out

As mentioned earlier this week will be short due the New Year Holidays. The momentum in the Market is better even then. Therefore the sentiments are friendlier with the bulls than the bears. 6248 points was the lowest the index came down to, after it got ripped off during the trauma started from the 4th of January 2016.

We have now passed it and heading towards 6300. The next barrier seems like the area at the end of 2015, which is around 6400 region. We can't see any obstacles till then. The major reasons that brought the market down were the inconsistent policy statements, some that came from the budget, then the Rupee devaluation, thereafter the interest rates adjustments, also the proposed Capital Gains Tax, also the battered Global Financial Markets, then the re - rating of the Emerging Markets, leading the foreigners to exit. As long as the Tax adjustments are not in existence legally, the Companies would have done their normal business and show their normal results. Therefore the quarterly results will be interesting to watch.

Stocks that would make you money - Part 2

As mentioned in my earlier post, the market can hit 6500 by May or June of this year. I have spotted 32 stocks, out of which I posted 11 counters in the previous post. Today is the Part 2 of that, and the Charts of these counters will have the BUY,SELL,STOP levels.

LFIN.N.0000 - Short/Long Term

MBSL.N.0000 - Short Term

PLC.N.0000 - Short/Long Term

SDB.N.0000 - Short/Long Term

SFIN.N.0000 - Short Term

VFIN.N.0000 - Short Term

AAIC.N.0000 - Short Term

BFL.N.0000 - Short/Long Term

TAFL.N.0000 - Short/Long Term

AEL.N.0000 - Short Term

KAPI.N.0000 - Short Term

MGT.N.0000 - Short Term

RICH.N.0000 - Closely watch

SHL.N.0000 - Short Term

VONE.N.0000 - Short Term

CSD.N.0000 - Short Term

GRAN.N.0000 - Short Term

PARQ.N.0000 - Short Term

ALUF.N.0000 - Short Term

REG.N.0000 - Short Term

LGL.N.0000 - Short Term

Stocks that would make you money, and take the market towards 6500 points - Part 1

Market can move towards 6500 points till May to June 2016. The following counters would give you money if you could buy them at price ranges given in the charts. I have given you the stocks that rallied during April to May of 2015, as they are showing almost the same signs of activity this time too, ofcourse at lower levels than the last year.

                                              COMB.N.0000 - Short Term

DFCC.N.0000 - Short term

HNB.N.0000 - Watch

ABL.N.0000 - Short Term

NDB.N.0000 - Short Term

SAMP.N.0000 - 12 Months

PABC.N.0000 - Short Term

SCAP.N.0000 - Short Term

CFVF.N.0000 - Short Term

LOLC.N.0000 - Short Term

LOFC.N.0000 - Short Term

Is this Government a joke? Is that why you are not buying?

The above caption was placed by me - PURPOSELY. This is not a caption that was MADE IN SRI LANKA, but these days we in Sri Lanka listen, hear and talk of so many hilarious and mind boggling things the present Government is doing. They are unbelievable, un professional, and damn jokes are the conclusions we have to jump into. Yes that is the reality, no doubt about it. But should we wait because they are crazy and the ones who are not crazy must come and save the country, to come into the market???

I DON'T THINK SO. I LOVE TO SEE THESE JOKES HAPPENING EVERY DAY, THEN MOST OF THE PLAYERS WILL SELL AND HELP THE SMARTEST INVESTORS TO BUY.

But are you one of the smartest, or are you waiting for a change to happen to come to the Market. DON'T BE FOOLED, THAT PERFECT TIME WILL NEVER COME. SO WHEN IS THE PERECT TIME???

I have shown you that if you buy for a reason, sell for a reason, and stop for a reason, you could have made money AND continue to make'em.

BUY,SELL,STOP is all what you need.

LET ALL TALK POLITICS AND GET OUT OF THE MARKET, BUT YOU KEEP INVESTING ACCORDING TO A PLAN.

Let them wait for the perfect moment but for YOU the perfect moment is the right price to buy, then the right price to sell, or as you or me as your broker is not perfect STOP and cut the loss.

ARE YOU SCARED TO STOP LOSS? you won't be if you trade in SMALL VOLUMES.
Why do you want to buy 10000 shares and get scared to STOP, when you can buy 100 or 1000 shares and STOP and save your CASH....... WHY?

REMEMBER that when you BUY BIG at the wrong price you are the LOOSER, and THAT IS GAMBLING. IF you want to buy big, buy at the BOTTOM. Which is called BOTTOM FISHING. Then sell when the prices are rising.

DON'T TRADE FOR INFORMATION AND GET CAUGHT TO MANIPULATORS. THEY LOVE TO SEE YOU ARE WANTING TO BUY BIG. WHY? THEY KNOW YOU HAVE BECOME THEIR SUCCORS. YOUR FIRST FEW TRADES THEY WILL MAKE YOU MONEY, THEN YOU WILL LOOSE ALL YOUR MONEY, AND THEY WILL MAKE IN PROFITS AND COMMISSIONS MORE THAN YOU EVER WOULD THINK.

If you look around you will see many Clients are like paupers whilst their Leaders are living in luxury.

DON'T MAKE THEM RICH WHEN YOU CAN BECOME ONE IF YOU DO IT TO A PLAN.

DO NOT blame others WHEN YOU  do not plan and trade.

I ALWAYS TELL YOU THAT WE ARE TRAINED TO TRAIN YOU..... COME MAKE USE OF US AND AVOID BECOMING SLAVES OF BLOOD SUCCORS.