Thursday, April 28, 2016

GRAN.N.0000 - Trade Break outs to cash in on trend extensions

In the context of the Sri Lankan Market I've experienced that trading on break outs are very profitable. Break outs are more effective when a stock is moving sideways, and consolidating within an uptrend. If the stock has established to be very bullish, and an uptrend is visible for an extended period, grabbing the opportunity that is given by a breakout is crucial.

I notice that this is the case with Grain elevators at the moment. I must first mention by the way side that this phenomena is not confined only to GRAN, as the present market is offering many stocks with potential breakout patterns.

Grain elevators was one of the best performers between 2010 and 2011. Thereafter the stock crashed to a low of 31.00 or so. The side way movement within a low of 31 to a high of 46 had then occurred from August 2013 to May of 2015. That was a painful 22 months or so. Since May 2015 the stock broke out of 46 and moved in to a new range. Thereafter it rallied from July to October 2015 from about 48 to as high as 120. That was a huge move within a tiny period. This made the stock to boil down once again and retrace all the way down to 52 also within a short period of roughly 5 months. Presently the stock is moving within a low of 52 to a high of 120. The trend right now is that the stock is trying to breakout of 82 to the upside, and if that happens then it could move upto 90 or thereabouts to see the sellers rallying in to pound it back down. The 100 DMA is the support at 80.90 and the 200 DMA is the resistance around 82.00. The important area that it should hold is 77.00, any dip below will completely change the trend from bullish to bearish.

No comments:

Loss and Gain of the ASI in 2021 vs the Loss in 2022

  This ASI chart shows the All time high in 2021 of 9025.82 on the 29th 0f Jan'21 and the fall to the yearly low of 6852.64 on the 19th ...