Saturday, February 23, 2019

ASI - Weekly Report as at 22.02.2019

As mentioned in my report on the ASI ( You can view it here ), the market is bearish in the short term, which will trade within a zone between 5831 and 5869. Failure to hold within the zone will expose the market to move in to the 26th of October 2018 territory between 5768 and 5831. Coming week will make it clear to us whether we are going to see a swing low, or a trend failure.

Despite the scepticism with only 12,474 trades happened for the week against 14,677 over the previous week, there had been some interesting price action that is taking place in some of the Counters. SFL.N.0000, AEL.N.0000, JKH.N.0000, OSEA.N.0000 and TKYO.N.0000 are the counters that stood out within the gloomy environment that has made traders loos all hope. The value investors are few and far between, yet some of them are accumulating in millions, and billions at times. They are the winners, whilst the majority are loitering not knowing what to do. Market PE is diving down weekly. It stood at 9.13 against 9.24 times during the previous week. The Counters with over 100 trades were 26 being the lowest for the year, whilst it was 35 during the previous week. There are many Fundamentally attractive counters, but their prices are falling by the day, making them more valuable in the process.

Let's look at the counters that are worth adding to a Traders watch list as follows:

TKYO Weekly Chart
For any counter to show direction either up or down needs volume and volume is what we saw in TKYO.N.0000. I am not talking of the normal board volume only. It had some large trades moving around through out the week. Image below gives you the Large Trades that happened during the week, and can see that there had been many such trades on TKYO taking place during the week.


In addition to these large transactions we saw 1.243Mn shares changing hands in the normal board as well. This is the largest since the last week of October 2018.

We can see a bullish divergence in the weekly chart, but due to the negative Fundamentals in the Reported Results many are not taking this counter seriously. As long as 22/00 is supported it could gather steam. Although we do not need to enter immediately, it's worth watching.


SFL Weekly Chart

This counter got traders' attention due to a disclosure published by the company, with regard to the ongoing exploring of possibilities to get a new investor for the future strength of the Company. In that backdrop Price Action could take it up to test the present Net Asset Value of 14/86. But the Price will not move up to that level in one line. The news mentioned made the traders to over-react which made the prices to retrace back to the price range of 8/30 to 10/30, which is the previous weeks' price range. Counter needs to stay above 8/30 to see a trend continuation in the short term. Any trade must be initiated based on the swing low formation. Watch till then.


OSEA Weekly Chart

With an NAV of over 30/00, and a commendable 12 months Results, this counter brought in fresh interest with above average volumes changing hands, but needs to break out of 17/10 for a major rally to take place. Till then worth watching.


JKH Weekly Chart

Being the most important counter in terms of Volumes and Price JKH must stay above 150/00, any breakdown will not be good for the stock and the market. If we were to see a breakout of 160/00, then it could re-test the 166/00 area, which will be very good for the market.


AEL Weekly Chart

This must hold 13/50 else will be very bearish. We saw a strong support base between 13/50 and 13/80 for the counter during the last week. This support must be there for a strong uptrend. As the counter is trying to defend this area, the out look is fragile. Breakout above 14/00 with volumes is the only time you could trade. Till then watch. The earlier trade idea to enter at 14/00, with a stop at 13/50 is hanging on the line. Any time it closes below 13/50, please stop the trade.


I earnestly hope that the new week ahead will be adventurous for those who dare!!!



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