Sunday, August 18, 2019

ASI Weekly Report - Be aware of false trend setters

Colombo Stock Exchange is the only Stock Market in this beautiful Country. Alongside the transformation of the the Nation the Many great Companies that are listed in the CSE are transforming themselves. How the Capital Markets would grow within this space is yet to be known. As such the Market Makers or Trend Setters are not regularised yet.

Therefore you see many players with genuine and in-genuine agendas taking huge risks when setting the trends. Various words are listed in the Dictionaries of the world to describe those who are in-genuine. They are badbogusfalseput oninauthenticpseudomockpretendedfictitiouscounterfeitpinchbecksyntheticimitativefictivefakephoneyunauthenticostensiveinsincerephonybastardshamforgedassumedspuriousbaseostensible.

Strangely the synonyms for the word Genuine are literalactualrealunfeignedechttrue.

As you can see the number of synonyms against the antonyms are so few and far between.

Remember my friend who read thus far, that in the Stock Market too you have many ingenuine players as against a few genuine ones. Do you feel satisfied when you read through the ingenue words which are many OR do you feel relaxed when you read the few genuine words.

Our task is not to know who they are. But to be aware of this reality and plan out to overcome the challenges and be victorious.

The week we passed was an important week as far as the Presidential Elections are concerned. An event that the entire nation was wanting to know happened on the 11th Sunday. The movie makers made that a Major Event. Since that Major event is behind our back the market is now looking for a another major event.

Until then the Market will be bearish. Just because the market is bearish, do you think that you want to bearish as well? Yes some are wanting to be so. But be careful since being bearish or bullish must be for valid reasons.

ASI weekly chart shows that we are now trending within a new resistance zone. Remember it is a resistance zone, not a support zone. The low of the zone is around 5871 and the high is around 6200 points. So the Index is at the lower base of the Resistance Zone. There are only 2 things that can happen here. One will be that the Index will test around 5871 area and reverse to the up. Second is a break down below 5871 and retrace further. As we are near the low base, we have to watch what will happen. If there is a break down, then there are a few psychological areas of support that will be tested, namely 5850, 5800, 5750. These areas represent strength by the Buyers.

The market is yet to move away from the fearfulness amongst so many. That is because it is the Sentiments that have brought many Traders and Investors into the Market at the moment. Some are upset that the June Quarter results of many listed companies are bad. They have fallen short of remembering the Bad Experience the entire Country went through in the latter part of April. That impacted the Economy in no uncertain terms. Hence we had to be prudent in expecting a hit on profits in that quarter.

But we saw the Interest rates both deposits and lending were allowed to be brought down by the Central Bank, when they brought the Interest rates down.This will prevail into the medium term if the Central Bank is serious enough to see increased activity in the Economy. We need to believe that. But some might think that the CBSL is also like the Politicians. Well that's their thinking. Who can change that. But normally the CBSL means business ALWAYS.

Then here and there the Cabinet reduced taxes as well. The hysterical way of increasing taxes and having a close tab on tax payers in the past 4+ years, has a leverage that can be compromised if the present or the future policy makers would like to. That too is something to hope for.




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