Monday, May 4, 2020

Update 6 - Commercial Bank Plc - Buy when others fear, and blood is on the street

Right along the coverage of this Strategy on COMB, the price action was tilted downwards. Now we are going through the most unimaginable period of Our lives. If you were a young chap during 1918 to 1920 you might be able to explain to us what you experienced during the Spanish Flu. Else it is certainly something new from the President of the United States to the youngest street boy in the planet. Times are challenging to the point that no body knows what will happen in the next Month, Quarter, Year, 2 Years, 3 Years or 10 Years from now. We all humans would want to wish that in the long run things will be certainly better. That's the only certainty from the Richest Man on Earth to the Poorest of the Poor would say with super confidence.

Now Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, buy quality merchandise when it is marked down.We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble, We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments.The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever. Since I know of no way to reliably predict market movements, I recommend that you purchase Good Company shares only if you expect to hold them for at least five years. Those who seek short-term profits should look elsewhere. All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies.

The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. 

The basis of the Strategy I am covering here are inspired by the above quotes by a famous investor who needs no introduction. If we say these are valuable sayings, then we need to use them at some point, and that is now. 

The following are the details pertaining to the COMB Strategy and the present status. I have updated the strategy to keep abreast with the current changes and they are highlighted in Purple:

Strategy - Stock Accumulation
Counter - COMB
Buying Rule: Buy only if the stock is below 100.00
Buy rule 1st amendment : Buying below 91.80 due to 
dividend adjustment
Buy rule 2nd amendment : Will keep accumulating below 
the trailing Average Price - Present Trailing Average is 89.14
Intervals of Accumulation: 3 times a week. i.e. Mon,Wed and FRI.
Start Date: 06.12.2019
Sell Rule: only if the P/E ratio is 9.8, OR the ROI is above 50%

Trade is still open as at: 20.03.2020
Cost Per Share - 89.14 (adjusted for dividends)
Cost Per Share Based on RCA - 86.54
Holding Volume - 180,000
Amount Invested - 16,390,035.20
Dividend income of Rs.345,000/= 
Scrip Dividend is pending
Period since the start: 105 days as at 20.03.2020
Market days : 63 days
Present Target Price 1 - Ave Price + 50% - 133.71
Present Target Price 2 - PE of 9.8 - 164.64
(EPS as at 31.12.2019 is 16.80)

Below is the Chart:





1 comment:

Anuruddha VK said...

Few questions;
1. How to calculate present trailing average price?
2. Why you take the target PE as 9.8?

Please explain. I am learning through your blog.

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