ASI - Not the best close, but higher than the present low

ASI closed at 6228. Yesterday it was 6229. ALMOST UNCHANGED. Intra-day it hit a high of 6244, and a low of 6225 points. The close of the day with a bearish long upper wick candle, isn't the best that happened. This shows that the market is fragile and looming around the present low at 6217. As long as the index is above that 6217 bulls have hope, despite them feeling shattered. On the up side we need to see 6250 and 6303 being tested, whilst on the down side 6200 and 6165 act as the support areas.

Short Term Trading Strategies

I am updating the google sheet on short term trades. If you think it is useful please click on the link below:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YDdK1JHGGSc8i52P21vCK8MNto2-Y0H4l53PLE_ms04/edit?usp=sharing

This is just a guide for trading in the CSE. It is very important to remember that the most critical thing to follow is the Stop price. There is no point blaming anyone for not following that important fact when trading.

ASI - Reocvered!!! will it be for long?

Finally the expectations of a trend reversal took place. RSI that was at 13.5 points yesterday, turned up to finish at 17.56. The index was 6229 points at the close, that was 6217 yesterday. A MILD RECOVERY. Whether it will be a rewarding turn is something any one would love to see. Whether it is bullish or bearish the basic thing to look for will be the support and resistance levels. Despite the recovery was a paltry sum, what to track would be the immediate support and resistance levels. On the resistance side keep an eye on 6250 and 6295 areas, whilst the supports are at 6200 and 6165 points, in case of a down trend continuation. My expectations are for the index to now hit higher, BUT there can be one more bearish move with a steep swing low candle, to make it an ideal trend reversal. Having said that the trend change that happened today is what I will be watching in the next few days, which will make the coast clear.

 

ASI - Can there be a trend reversal any one of these days?

ASI closed with an RSI of 16 yesterday. It fell to 13.5 today, whilst the ASI closed at 6217 points. That was lower than the previous support in the region of 6225 points. There are support areas between 6200 and 6100, but a trend reversal could be seen one of these days, even as early as tomorrow. That's because of the ASI being heavily over sold. It wasn't normal to see the index beaten up 10 days in a row. Also the fall of 198 points within the period was not something that happens always. If the expectations are wrong then we would see 6200 to 6100 areas being tested.

ASI - Touched the 161.8% fib extension @ 6267 points

It was only yesterday I discussed that the ASI could test 6267 points - 161.8% Fib Extension. It closed at 6265 points a drop of 52 points intra-day. Whilst there are no signs of a reversal based on indicators, we saw some support coming to the market giving a ray of hope. Tomorrow and day after will be decisive as we could see more clarity in the change of direction. ASI is once again heavily oversold with the RSI at 16.8 points. It was 13.60 in August 2017, from which point the index reversed to recoup 300+ points in a matter of 2 months. Therefore the importance of the next 2 days become apparent further. Can we hold 6225? Can we hold 13.8 on RSI?

ASI - Slope persist. No change of momentum.

On the 8th of June we discussed the ASI, when it moved into the support channel. Sadly the bears prevailed for the next week as well. Today's behaviour was no better, thus the index pierced through the support channel. It is heading down to 6267 points. Index broke down from the previous low of 6316 points reported on the 19th of December 2017. So did the RSI which is now below the previous low of 21.94 points. The formation of the momentum indicators do not show a reversal of the trend just yet. Earnestly hope the a reversal would happen above 6267 points, which is the 161.8% of the fib extension that is being monitored right now.

ASI - Dipped into the Support Channel

On the 31st of May 2018, We discussed the ASI based on the Fib Extensions. We were expecting the Index to dip towards 6371 and below upto 6320. The image that was shared is given here:

The price line was above the light blue coloured channel. Now you can clearly see that the price line has come down into the channel as given in the image below.

We have seen on many Fridays that the ASI use to recover and close with a long tailed candle. It happened today too. That doesn't say that all is well with the index. Need to see the candle on Monday to  close above today's with considerable change in the momentum. If not the dismal performance on the ASI will prevail for quite a while.