Plantations - Holding the support channel.......up trend will continue this year based on Tea Supply and Demand

Plantation index held on to the channel between 898 and 956, closing a touch above the upper channel line yesterday. To expect a resumption of the rally we need to see the levels of 973 and 986 being broken with strong volumes. Reduced Tea supply in the world markets, gave an upward pressure to the Prices in 2017. This impact will not ease off in the immediate future. The display of the volumes behaviour will certainly keep up the fierce competition amongst the Shippers and Traders through out 2018, with those who will have higher stocks in their warehouses with further buying power will be the winners. As far as the Plantation Companies are concerned their Sold volumes relative to the realized prices will be key to watch for the increased profitability. The biggest game changer will be the Rubber Price behaviour, which is not the best at the moment. This will be closely monitored....

Rubber Monthly Prices:

 There is a small up tick in December over November, yet there is a long way to go.
 

ASI gave new hopes, on the last working day of the Month......heading to test the recent high

The market closed on a high on the last working day, with the ASI breaking out of 6456 which was a mild resistance point. We can now expect the up move to re-test 6545 points, the recent high. Momentum is very interesting, and the Seasonal Quarterly figures are trickling in alongside the customary dividend pay outs. Both giving a bolster to the sentiments, despite the noise. If you are a CDS account holder through who ever the broker is, I strongly recommend to build up your Portfolio ASAP. This market will give you a minimum of 15% YOY. Don't be just reading these posts.What's holding you? Your money is yours, don't park them in the bank and regret later. Don't be stupid to try making quick bucks in the CSE. You will just be another looser joining the 99% of the ignorant, foolish lot who are willingly getting their monies burnt by all sorts of tricksters. Have a plan and invest into the best stocks, and wait....by actively watching the movement of your investments. I have given a model portfolio in my earlier post, which listed 9 SL20 stocks, also I have included the wish list I covered in another post. These will be watched and updated in this blog regularly. Last year one fund manager had recorded 11% increase in his portfolio, another 6%, and yet another -7%, whilst the model portfolio we tracked recorded 14.22%. That was when the market had given only a 3.5% return. I believe the model portfolio I have posted in the following link will out bid the ASI this year too. Check it out here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MBvPqvREQ8D-1TaudExsZwYyDUJ8ALkn-hc62w5mQyI/edit#gid=0

For all those traders, let me remind that the stop loss is very important. The reason why many are not trading in the cse yet some are happily trading forex and bitcoins or other cryptos is that they are getting stopped automatically. But when they trade in the CSE they do not apply that descipline, and get disgruntled. As we have begun another new year resolve to apply the stop loss principle, and buy only what you can loose without feeling frustrated. If you have the guts only to loose Rs.1000.00, then buy a volume to loose that amount if your trade set up fail. Be a mature Trader, without being a novice all the time.

Omnium Optimi - All the Best

Model Portfolio for 2017/2018 - Gained 14.22%, when ASI returned 3.53%

You would have heard or read that many Fund Managers have given a decent return during 2017, well above the return given in the ASI. Some of these Fund Managers have achieved negative returns, but given their long term approach towards the Funds they have turned a positive return surpassing the ASI. A Model Portfolio we created on the 1st day of 2017 gained 14.22% by the close of the 1st day of this year. That was when the ASI achieved a gain of just 3.53%. I like to share the details of this portfolio, together with the portfolio that was re-balanced. You can find it in the link here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MBvPqvREQ8D-1TaudExsZwYyDUJ8ALkn-hc62w5mQyI/edit#gid=0

It is well known that having a long term approach in the Stock Market, helps you to  increase value of your precious investments. In that sense building and keeping a very close scrutiny on your portfolio will certainly achieve fantastic results.

As we returned 14.22% last year, our goal now is to increase the invested amount together with the return on a compounded basis. Let's see how that will be achieved within the current year.

Let's look at a few more model portfolios with different combinations in the coming days.

SDB - Heading to 111/=

SDA was 104.20 on the 17th instant. The day I included it into my wish list. It will most likely hit 111.00, and test 114/= to finally test 118.30 in the short term based on the present interest. I expect 106/= to be the short term support.

JKH - Reached 165...... Now what?

It was only on the 17th we discussed about JKH. Close on that day was 160.00. As expected it tested 165.00. Trend continuation will test 168-172. All will happen with strong volumes and active trading. Else the trend would be fragile. 100 sma acts like a strong support at 158.30 in the short term.

ASI reversed within the support channel

I expected the ASI to find support between 6400 and 6430. It did just that. The next break out to watch will be 6456 points, the level I thought it would reverse earlier. If the ASI breaks out with a force above that, then we will see a trend continuation, else the higher close is just a false reversal. Let's see.

Strategies of RETAIL INVESTORS - BLIND YET INVESTS Part 3

 The Investor I am talking today is in his early 80's, and due to glaucoma he is totally blind. I repeat TOTALLY BLIND.
He had been a brilliant Engineer upto 1983, He was 48 years. He was completely shattered when he saw how people got massacred in 1983 riots, right in front of his eyes. He never entered His office ever since. Instead He decided to stay at home and make a living. His living was so successful that he had built 3 houses for His children and gave them all the best of education, as they are now well established. Why I say that he is brilliant is because he just keep the records of his share dealings in his brains. As he can't see his wife helps him to write them and keep the accounts, whilst reading financial reports and announcements so that he could study the stocks to invest into. His strategy is simple. He swaps his funds between Fd's and Stocks. Also he is buying in stages way below the present Price when he believes that the market is coming down, whilst selling way above the Selling price when the market is going up. Even if he could pump in millions of cash, he will always buy and sell in 100's,200's,300's or max 500's. Is this a simple strategy or not!!!