What happened to KAPI should happen to these Stocks too.......

A lot of those who are scratching their heads wandering what's going on with KAPI please read the following link: http://techwatch-esgee.blogspot.com/2019/01/kapi-what-is-going-on.html.

For those who are wanting to know what would happen to many other counters that had up-trends but pulled back, please go through the following:

MASK Weekly Chart

If you look closely at the chart below, I have highlighted a PIN BAR of which the tip of the upper end is 13/50. Then I have pointed out the upper ends of the tips of the last 2 candles. It shows that the price went up above the said 13/50, but did not close. Therefore the following 3 factors must be fulfilled for the stock to move higher.

1). Volumes must increase.
2). No. of Trades should go up and,
3). Price must breakout of 13/50.

This is exactly what happened to KAPI. The Volumes increased yesterday, and the number of trades also went up. Finally the price just broke out of the resistance forcefully with volumes and trades today.

If this scenario is not going to be seen in MASK, there won't be higher highs.
Lack of Trades and volumes at the present levels suggest that force full selling that can bring the prices down sharply cannot be seen in this counter at present. We also see a double bottom at 12/50, but with lower volumes, which is somewhat positive. As this is the day 3 of the consolidation phase, we need to expect the good and the bad to come forth until the above factors are met, and a break out takes place.




BALA Weekly Chart

In the case of BALA the resistance is at 17/00. As you can see in the chart this 17/00 rupee mark had been a strong make or break (Pivot) point. Just like in MASK the factors mentioned must be met for BALA to move higher.

 ELPL Weekly Chart

22/90 is a major resistance here. Need to Breakout of that to expect new highs. Here again the above mentioned factors will have to be met.

SAMP in the Target Zone. Straight line target reach won't happen always

Yesterday we saw the price breaking out of the consolidation zone on SAMP, and today we saw the prices entering into the Target Zone. RSI is at 65 means it is still not oversold. However a straight line hit to the top of the target zone won't happen always. Since we have tested 240/00 today, price will need to close above that with volumes to reach 245/00. But entering the zone is quite significant, within a short period.

MASK, BALA and MADU must breakout for new highs

Plantations took a breather after some heavy trading during the last week. This consolidation is nothing unusual in a trend. Let's see the price action on the above mentioned charts.

MASK Daily Chart

13/50 for this counter had been an important level. The stock is testing that level at present. That must be broken with strong volumes to see the stock moving towards 15/00.

BALA Daily Chart

17/00 is a major resistance point which needs to be broken out with volumes for the counter to move up towards 19/50.

MADU Daily Chart

8/00 is the breakout point of MADU. Failure to do so will stretch the consolidation. Thereafter only it would test 8/80 to 9/00.

If any one is taking trading positions on these counters there are two strategies, a). Wait for the break out or b). Buy within the consolidation. Either way please have your stops as nothing is certain in life.

SAMP - Trade Idea - the progress

19th of Jan 2019 I shared a trade idea on SAMP, to Buy between 225/00 and 230/00, with a Stop at 223/10, and a target between 238/00 - 245/00. You could refer that here : http://techwatch-esgee.blogspot.com/2019/01/samp-new-trend-formed-trade-idea.html

Today the price closed above the resistance of 233/00 with volumes. Higher highs would happen if the price line cut above 238/00 which is the recent high and test the important zone between 240/00 and 245/00. Let's see how it performs.

ASI weekly report with a difference - 25.01.2019

Week ending 25.01.2019 saw the number of trades moving up to 23,534 against 16,386 of the previous week in the ASI. This is the highest for the Month. The market PE dropped to 9/39 over 9/57, and the PBV edged higher to 1/18 from 1/16. This was an indicator that despite the Trades increasing considerably the value in the Market has dropped. Another noticeable feature is that the Purchases made by Locals had dropped amidst heavy trading (from 2.8Bn to 958Mn). Sales by the Locals had decreased too (from 1.36Bn to 1.2Bn). As we are moving on to the Last week of the month this is not encouraging for the Traders. Foreign sales (1.5Bn this week, which was 2.1Bn last week) and purchases (617Mn of the last week improved to 1.4Bn during the week) took a positive turn. Higher number of Trades showed the bullish momentum by Traders. They were concentrating into one sector in particular and that is the Plantations. Traders who would want to be in the Plantation Sector need to make a note on the below mentioned key points as follows:

a). Sentiment effects that would bring due to wage hike.
b). Overbought levels in the Plantation Counters.
c). Month end de-liveraging that may happen.

We also can see that the number of counters that had over 100 trades during the week had increased from 29 to 49. Also the 300 trades and above counters were 18 from 10 counters of the previous week. Interestingly half of them came from one sector that is none other than the Plantation Sector.

JINS,BFN,CONN and DIAL moved out of the 300 club. That is one indication that those counters are now on a consolidation. KAPI is another that needs to see increased trades and volumes for a trend continuation, which will be covered below. HEXP performed well during the week, with volumes and trades, but will need a cooling off to move higher. LDEV is in a consolidation which is needed for a Trend Continuation. MGT needs to be collected at the present zone, as covered in the chart below. Sector chart of the Plantations is covered below which is an important chart to follow. It will be interesting to cover the counters in the plantations separately hence only the Sector chart is given here.

Let's look at the weekly charts of the ASI, PLT,LDEV,MGT and KAPI below:

ASI Weekly -

As mentioned above the Value of the Over all market has not improved during the week. ASI weekly in that back ground saw the bears trying to take control by bringing down the price line below the previous weeks low of 5962 to 5944, but was short lived. Bulls took the price line up quite decisively to close at 5978 after missing the 9EMA of 5996 by just 1 point. It will be a challenge for the bulls to defend their task during the week to follow as it will have face the month end selling. As long as 5944 which was the low of the week is defended the bulls can over power the bears and continue a trend into the new month.

Plantations Weekly -

We were expecting the price line of the PLT chart to test a resistance zone between 805 and 842 points. With a close at 820 the index has moved to the zone within a week. The 3 key points mentioned above will play a major role, thus a retracement before a Trend Continuation can not be ruled out.

KAPI Weekly -

As I have been saying for awhile now, trading KAPI is very easy if you watch the movement between 14/30 and 17/20. If 14/30 is broken down it will be short term bearish. !4/30 support and break out above 17/20 should happen within days for higher highs. Else the consolidation will panic many traders.

LDEV Weekly - 

Impulsive action that started at 6/40 and 4/80  could not hold as the trend failed on both occasions, however the impulse triggered at 4/00 survived to hold. The price is consolidating above that with a high of 4/70. If the said consolidation is to sustain above 4/00 with above average volumes, higher highs can be expected. Since the Price line is at the recent lower base levels, buying at the present levels between 4/40 and 4/60 will not be a bad idea, as long as you have a stop below 4/00.

MGT Weekly - 

With improved quarterly figures, attention increased towards MGT. Do not see a huge short term upsurge until a strong base is formed between 8/90 and 9/70, with heavy volume absorption. If not for volumes this counter will not see higher highs. Do not ignore this counter at all. If the present growth is a continuous process we could see above average returns.

Easy to Track ASI's direction

ASI just got above a critical descending line that has been a pivot on 14 times since June of 2017. Below the present close lays a support that had tested on three occasions at 5920, whilst at the top we see 6069 at a triple top. This shows that the index is trending in a rather solid channel between these 2 lines. Now that we have closed a touch above 5920 we need to see how best the bulls could take it up to test the triple top line, which just 80 points away. Present close of the ASI is 5960.

KAPI - What is going on?

Chart below shows how the price action is taking place in KAPI. Traders need to be aware of the Risk/Reward based on the period they are willing to hold. If someone wants the target to hit within a few days then waiting for a breakout of 17/20 with volumes will be sensible, with a stop loss at 14/70 (present swing low). For all bold traders who are willing to stop loss and are patient to wait for the Target of 19/=, can go ahead now itself. Target of 19/= will only be hit if the Volume based momentum is strong above 17/20.