Beginning of the year for the ASI had not been bullish in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The trend failure in the 2nd week of January of 2015 (Peak was 7671), did not recover till the last week of March (lowest being 6760 points) shedding 911 points within a matter of 11 weeks. Thereafter it rallied till the middle of August to peak at 7473 points, adding back 813 points. But the trend reversal made the ASI to plummet for 28 strait months till the 1st week of March 2016 (lowest being 5802 points). Erasing a whopping 1671 points in the process. Then the trend reversed to the upside to hit a high of 6718 in the middle of May 2016. A relatively faster move of 900+ points at a monthly average of 300 points. But this extraordinary movement was short lived as it plummeted again for another 42 weeks. Hitting a low of 5968 points in the last week of March 2017. This time the noticeable difference was that the index shed only 750 points although the drop was longer than in 2015-2016 period. Finally we saw that the ASI finished higher in 2017 with a very small margin of 2-3%.
No one can ignore that the trend had continued into 2018 as well, but the contribution of major counters have not been encouraging, which is not a good indicator. But that doesn't mean that they are not going to contribute moving forward.
As we are in the month of March, a month that have helped the traders to see trend extensions during the last 3 years, despite the disastrous endings, there is a glimmer of hope in them that has increased the level of sentiments. In that sense the present status of the market is at an important threshold, as the ASI is moving within a channel between 6520 and 6600 points. As can be seen in the Day Chart below you will notice that these areas are critical for the make or break of the uptrend.
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