Colombo Land - CLND.N.0000 - Has moved into the HSZ - WAIT!!!

CLND has moved into the HSZ - High Security Zone. Needs barracks to be fortified with strong foundations in this region between 28.50 and 30.80 to move into newer territory. DO NOT INITIATE A BUY.....UNTIL
IT CONSOLIDATES, AND BUILD A STRONG BASE.

What happened between 23.90 must happen between 28.50 and 30.80. If a strong base is formed in this area then expect prices move towards 40's. If you wait and buy you can make more than 15% in a very short period.

Patience is the Game strategy here. 

Higher volumes at peaks have made the stockeither to retrace and crash or consolidate.

consolidation therefore is very healthy

if we want to see new highs. 

AEL - UP TREND commenced

29/3/2016 to 30/3/2016 volume increased by 332k to 1.118m, a 236% volume change. Stock moved up from a close of 19.90 to a closing of 20.30. Rallying thereafter to a close of 23.40 on 12/4/2016. 15% rise.On 15/4/2016 the volumes dropped to 349k from 2.114m of 12/4/2016, leading to a change of trend. From a close of 23.70 on 15/4/2016 retraced back to a close of 22.50 on 26/4/2016. The volumes raised to 878.45k that day from 247k of the previous day..

Similar development of volume increase was witnessed on 13/5/2016 as the volumes increased to 1.519m from 240.833k from the previous day. This looks a strong bullish signal, implying a resumption of a new uptrend. I expect 24.00 to be broken one of these days.  Resistance will be at 24.90 and 25.90. I expect the 24.90 to breach and hit a nett 5% target at a price of 25.10. Then to test 25.90, and hit a nett 10% target at 26.40.
Buy at 23.40, Sell 1 = 25.10, Sell 2 = 26.40, Stop at 22.20.
Let's see how long it will take.

WHITE LIST - The Top 20 most traded - 13.05.2016

For all the WHITE LIST enthusiasts I take pleasure in presenting the BUY, SELL, and STOP levels. The table lists out the TOP 20 Most traded Stocks of the WHITE LIST. The SELL levels are in two forms i.e. Sell price with a 5% margin, and a 10% margin. I urge you to strictly follow the STOP LOSS as Stocks are like Humans. They are not Perfect. Hence STOP if the trade is against you.

Constructive Criticism are most welcome. Please state on the comments slot below.

Short Term Trade - MDT Walkers - KAPI.N.0000

Short Term Trade -
Period - within 3 months.
Buy - 44.20
Sell - 5% - 47.50
         10% - 49.70
Stop - 42.00

All Share Index will hit ALL TIME HIGHS

On the 7th of December 2015 I posted thus......

 "Quote"

A must see Chart - ASI target of 8672 points, then 11109 points.

I know you may not believe me if I say that the ASI will go upto 8672, and the completion of the trend will be a whopping 11109 points.

I firmly believe that the re-rating of the Country happened  in 2009. Therefore the trend that started during 2009 for me is the 1st uptrend, which paved the way for the re-rating of the way the market would behave from there on. I think most would agree with me on that. Purely from the price behaviour, we can now see that the trend we saw from the latter part of 2008 to the beginning of 2011, succeeded in basing a promising future for the market and the index in particular.One day before the end of 2008, i.e. 30th of 2008 the index closed at a low of 1454.83, and rallied to an all time high of 7863.74 by 15.02.2015. Thereafter the market just plummeted to a low of 4725.57on 6.6.2012. Thus completing the 1st post war trend.  Based on the Fibonacci extensions  the ASI is trending side ways in the 38.2% region,at present. Was it a planned development? obviously not. Once we breakout of that area, the index would test the next level of 61.8% of the previous trend to 8672 points. Thereafter for the completion of the trend by 100% it could hit the region of 11,100 points. I personally believe that this will be a reality. But the fundamentals relevant to the market should support the trend. Therefore the period of this expectation is somewhat far fetched. But that doesn't mean that it's not going to happen in our time. Because we can't forget the fact that we have an entire country to do economic activities after 2009. The chart in question will show us how fast and successful it is going to be. 

"Unquote"

As you can see the index to move from 1800 points to 7800 points took a little over 25 months i.e. December 2008 to February 2011. Thereafter it took roughly about 16 months to retrace from 7800 points to 4700 points. If you break it down on a monthly basis, the market went up by 240 points per month since Dec 2008 to Feb 2011, and fell about 193 points a month from Feb 2011 to June 2012. 

Going back to the above period between 2008 December and June of 2012, the trend extension shows a whopping 11,000 points.  

But the next uptrend that started from June 2012 at 4700 points to the peak of  7600 in Jan 2015, had an average monthly gain of 97 points per month, but the drop from 7600 points in Jan 2015 to 5800 points in April 2016, was a drop of 120 points per month. This movement therefore looks slower relatively to the earlier trend. The main reason for this is the level of leveraging in the market since June 2012 is not as large as earlier. The next being the Fear psychosis, and Panic. Free money that was available is not available any longer. Therefore the aggressiveness that we saw before is not there amongst the traders. The naive attitude and knowledge of the Local participants are not visible as freely as we saw in the past.

The trend extension based on this period from June 2012 to April 2016, shows a completion at 8700 points. 

As mentioned above the curbing of loose and illiterate trading, may slow the pace but certainly not the trend. However experience tells me that at some point the Leveraging will increase and the participation of Institutional and Retail Traders will take the market to where it belongs.  


  

ASI - 7000 points before the year end.

Bullish expectations emanating from all around has contributed in pushing the ASI above 6500 points. The next stop will be 6715, and after then 6908, with that we would go back again to where we started in the beginning of this year. I expect a major correction of more than 200 points only when we come to the beginning of June. This would happen only if we have moved up super fast to 6900 before then. Within the the rally there are pit stops, but they may not be so great, because the present market is ONLY sentiment driven and not anything about the good profit and growth stories that would come from the Listed companies. However the COUNTERS WILL REALLY ROCK IF WE GET THE BOOST FROM THOSE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS.  ALSO WHEN WE SEE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN MANY SECTORS LIKE THE BANKS, MANUFACTURING AND DIVERSIFIED SECTORS EXPECT THE YEAR TO CLOSE ABOVE 7500 POINTS.

At any rate I firmly believe that the market is gonna close in and around 7000 points before the close of 2016, based on positive sentiments only.

Just like anybody I want to see the bigger counters deliver. This makes me feel that the market will end up around the said 7000 mark, as these major counters will not see big buying to really power boost them up. As these counters have been hammered for more than a year now, any big buying can help them and help us too.

I also believe that the GOSL must make things easier for the Economy to roll, which is the feeling many want to now slowly have. But given the KNEE JERKS the business society is encountering, the belief that this is really the case will take time. If things are really happening then this market is gonna be active beyond imagination. THIS IS MY YEARNING HOPE.

GRAN.N.0000 - Trade Break outs to cash in on trend extensions

In the context of the Sri Lankan Market I've experienced that trading on break outs are very profitable. Break outs are more effective when a stock is moving sideways, and consolidating within an uptrend. If the stock has established to be very bullish, and an uptrend is visible for an extended period, grabbing the opportunity that is given by a breakout is crucial.

I notice that this is the case with Grain elevators at the moment. I must first mention by the way side that this phenomena is not confined only to GRAN, as the present market is offering many stocks with potential breakout patterns.

Grain elevators was one of the best performers between 2010 and 2011. Thereafter the stock crashed to a low of 31.00 or so. The side way movement within a low of 31 to a high of 46 had then occurred from August 2013 to May of 2015. That was a painful 22 months or so. Since May 2015 the stock broke out of 46 and moved in to a new range. Thereafter it rallied from July to October 2015 from about 48 to as high as 120. That was a huge move within a tiny period. This made the stock to boil down once again and retrace all the way down to 52 also within a short period of roughly 5 months. Presently the stock is moving within a low of 52 to a high of 120. The trend right now is that the stock is trying to breakout of 82 to the upside, and if that happens then it could move upto 90 or thereabouts to see the sellers rallying in to pound it back down. The 100 DMA is the support at 80.90 and the 200 DMA is the resistance around 82.00. The important area that it should hold is 77.00, any dip below will completely change the trend from bullish to bearish.