RCL - Need to form a base before the next high

Quarter Ending Sept'19, the NAV of RCL.N.0000 was 211.00. The EPS for 6 months is 8.33, and 5.24 for the 3 months. Going forward we could expect their profits to keep moving higher given the improved business out look for their sector. Incidentally they finished 2019 FY with an EPS of 23.75, despite them showing only 7.12 for the 6 months. Given these scenarios, we could see a better profit outlook for the counter for the 12 months. More importantly this had been one of the best dividend paying counters in the bourse, but with subdued business out look during the past the payout saw a reduction. They have been paying 2 dividend payments anywhere between January and May of every year. That's about 1 to 6 months from now. Only thing is that their total dividend payout per share during the last FY was a meager 4.00. If they feel that the business out look is better, they might increase that amount this year around.

Like many counters RCL too moved into a new Up Trend, but it started only from September whilst the overall market was from May'19. However it is now trading in front of a major resistance zone of 100.00 to 101.00. Going by the momentum in the counter, I expect a short term support any where between 89.00 and 93.00, before the next test of the said resistance zone of 100.00 to 101.00. Price and volume action during that breakout will determine their next move forward.

Strategy - Buy on Dips. Wait for the retracement.
No stop loss as the out look is Bullish.

AEL - Long Consolidation anticipated. Do Not hold if You have no GUTS. Buy on Dips

AEL as a Company in the Construction Space is poised to out perform the KPI's in the Sector. This expectation is bringing in a lot of attention to the counter in an unprecedented way. Huge volumes are changed hands during the lower levels in May to the present highs. But we now see a critical area of resistance for the counter. During the 900 days long rally we saw during May 2012 to June 2014 when the prices rose from a low of 13.50 to the all time high of 40.20, the prices went through a long and tiring consolidation around the same zone that it has now moved into. I expect it to trend side ways in this zone between 21.80 and 24.10 with occasional tests in the zone between 20.00 and 21.00. Until a breakout above 24.10 on closing basis coupled with massive volumes, the next levels of resistance points will not be tested.

Strategy - Buy on Dips.
No Stop Loss is needed as the Forward Out Look is Bullish.
Most Importantly note that if You do not have the guts then please don't buy.
An ideal time to accumulate in stages if you are holding the stock at a higher average cost. Also if you have got into it after May'19 and wandering what to do, be patient and do not exit in full. If you have exited or sold in part, collecting at lower end of the zone or within the next support zone of 20.00 to 21.00, is not a bad idea at all.

DPL - Dankotuwa Porcelain PLC - 2017තේ මාර්තු සිට ජූලි දක්වා තිබුන රැලි එකෙ රෙසිස්ටන්ස් ඒරියාස් වල නැවතත්. Prices are testing the Resistance Areas of 2017 March to July Rally

DPL Prices 2017තේ මර්තු මාසේ සිට ජූලි මාසය දක්වා රු. 5/30 සිට 10/40 (96%) දක්වා ඉහල ගියා. එම කාලය තුල මිල ගණන් වතාවල් කිහිපයකදීම Resistance Areas වල consolidate වෙමින් සහ එම Channels strong volumes එක්ක Breakout කරමින් ඉහල ගිය බව අපිට දකින්න පුලුවන්. මම පහත share කර තිබෙන chart එකේ දකුනු පස කහ පැහැති box එක ඇතුලේ එම Rally එකේ mirror image එකක් දකින්න පුලුවන්. එම Rally එකේ අපිට පෙනෙනවා රු. 8/00 ත්, රු. 8/60 ත් අතර Consolidation එකක් වෙලා තියෙන බව. ගිය සතියෙ (18.11.2019 - 22.11.2019), අපි දැක්ක DPL prices රු. 8/00 breakout කරලා රු. 8/60 test කරන බව. ඉන් පසු රු. 8/00 support කරන්න දැන් උත්සහ දරනවා. රු. 8/00 ත්, රු. 8/60 ත් අතර support area එක මිලෙහි ඉදිරි ගමනට ඉතා වැදගත්. රු. 7/40 ත් රු. 7/50 ත් අතර gap එකක් පිහිටලා තියෙන බව ඕනෑ  කමින් chart එක බලන කෙනෙක්ට තේරුම් ගන්න පුලුවන්.  එම area එක present support එක බව විශේෂ‍යෙන් මතක තියා ගන්න ඕනෙ. කවුරු හරි DPL එක්කහු කරන

කෙනෙක් ඉන්නවානම් මේ support area එක ඉතා ව්දැගත්. ඒ වගේම ඇරන් ඉන්න අය තව එකතු කරන්න අදහස් කරනවානම් රු. 8/00 ත් රු.7/40 ත් අතර එක්කහු කරගන්න පුලුවන් කම තියෙනවා. Trader කෙනෙක් නම් රු. 7/40 ත් රු. 7/20 අතර stop loss එක දාන්න බලාගන්න ඕනේ.
රු. 8/60 breakout වුනාට පස්සෙ 2017 next resistance එක වන රු. 9/20 ත්, fib trend extensions වල 100% extension එක වන රු. 9/80 area එක test කරන්න වෑයම් කරයි. ඉන් පස්සෙ breakout වුනොත් රු. 10/40 ටෙස්ට් කරන්න පුලුවන් කම තියෙනවා. එය සිදු වන්න Company performance සහ overall market sentiment එකේ වර්දනයන් වදගත් වෙනවා. ඒවාගෙම NAV සහ EPS මේ chart එකේ සදහන් කර තියෙනවා. ඒ තුලින් company එක 2017 සහ 2019 perform කරල තියෙන හැටි බලාගන්න පොඩි පිටුවහලක් වෙනවා. ඒ ratios තව තේරුම් කරගන්න ඕනේ නම් තම තමාගේ Stock Broker ගෙන් විමසා දැන ගන්න පුලුවන්. Technical Analysis පාවිච්චි කරන අය Trading Rules අනුව Trade කරනවා නම් මේ ratios guidance එකක් හටියට පාවිච්චි කරන්න පුලුවන්.

DPL had a rally in March to July 2017 between a price range of 5/30 and 10/40 (96%). During this rally prices had made several consolidations and breakouts with strong volumes. We can see a mirror image of this rally in the light yellow box on the right side within the chart given here. One major Consolidation had been between 8/00 and 8/60. If you fast forward to the present we can see that the prices have tested both 8/00 and 8/60 during the week ended on the 22nd November 2019. The next major consolidation would occur once a breakout happens above 8/60 with strong volumes. After the breakout the price could test 9/20 and may extend upto 9/80. The consolidation range therefore will be between these levels of 9/20 and 9/80. A breakout thereafter could test the 2017 high of 10/40. Strong Company performance and increased confidence in the overall market will certainly help the said breakout. You can see the NAV and EPS levels during 2017 rally and during 2019 for you to get a basic idea of the ratios during important periods. This is primarily for traders to decide on the trading plan. Investors may contact their respective brokers for  further research on fundamentals pertaining to the stock. If you pay close attention to the chart, you will see that there is a gap between 7/40 and 7/50, which is a key support area for the counter. Those who wish to enter now, you may accumulate between 8/00 and 7/40. This area is important for those who intend buying on dips as well. For traders however must use the range between 7/20 and 7/40 as the stop loss.

CFVF - Gap Fill will take place, but need to breakout of 54/40 with volumes

CFVF came up with a valuable dividend of 4/= per share. The day after the Div the price gapped from 53/= to 50/=. This gap was tested on the 16th. If the gap is filled and test 53/= once again it will be short term bullish. However a close above 54/40 which is the present high with volumes needs to take place. Hence you need to have your stop loss in place, and prepare to close the trade. Here too you have stories and rumours. One needs to understand that these stories only warrants trading until the event has happened. Till then there can be a lot of volatility. As such be humble enough to have Buy, Sell and Stop rules.

JINS - Short Term Bullish - Support above 32/= with Volumes, ELSE possible retracement to between 30/20 and 31/50

JINS - Mostly moves with news and rumours. Which is understandable because of its illiquidness. The free float of the Counter is 19.72%. Therefore many theories and stories afloat from time to time. Now it has become frequent.

If you have bought for stories, don't blame yourself, but be concerned of your strategy if you did not enter with a Stop Loss and a Target. Did you know that when ever you want to trade that if you ask yourself 3 simple question about why you buy? What Price to Sell? and If the plan goes against At what Price to Stop Loss? Then you will be a satisfied Trader, not once, not twice, ALWAYS.

Ofcourse if you are a longterm investor who are prepared to hold and are certain of something big is going to happen, then your strategy is not a stop loss. It can be a different strategy.

However for the Traders, JINS need to hold above 32/= with Volumes, worst case it must hold above 31/20 in the short term. So your stop loss can be any thing from 32/= to a low of 31/20. The Zone given in pinkish colour between 30/=, and 31/50 is an important area of support. Price action there will tell us whether the counter is going to really hit higher.

AEL - 19/50 to 20/= support with Volumes, the LAUNCHING PAD for the next RALLY!!!

A member in my FB group wanted me to post some charts in that group. On the 9th therefore I shared a chart on AEL.N.0000 and in my 1st Target was 21/90, and said that the price above could test 23/50 to 24/=.  The image of that chart is given below.

As you can see the price tested the 22/= area but did not close. It retraced below the 1st support of 20/10, but took support in the area of the 29th and 30th July higher range of 19/60. Thereafter it is now testing to stay above 20/=. A consolidation above 19/50 to 20/= with higher volumes will position itself to pierce above 22/= in the next trend reversal. However a breakdown below 18/30 will be bearish for the present bullish trend. The present chart is given below.

ASI Weekly Report - Be aware of false trend setters

Colombo Stock Exchange is the only Stock Market in this beautiful Country. Alongside the transformation of the the Nation the Many great Companies that are listed in the CSE are transforming themselves. How the Capital Markets would grow within this space is yet to be known. As such the Market Makers or Trend Setters are not regularised yet.

Therefore you see many players with genuine and in-genuine agendas taking huge risks when setting the trends. Various words are listed in the Dictionaries of the world to describe those who are in-genuine. They are bad, bogus, false, put on, inauthentic, pseudo, mock, pretended, fictitious, counterfeit, pinchbeck, synthetic, imitative, fictive, fake, phoney, unauthentic, ostensive, insincere, phony, bastard, sham, forged, assumed, spurious, base, ostensible.

Strangely the synonyms for the word Genuine are literal, actual, real, unfeigned, echt, true.

As you can see the number of synonyms against the antonyms are so few and far between.

Remember my friend who read thus far, that in the Stock Market too you have many ingenuine players as against a few genuine ones. Do you feel satisfied when you read through the ingenue words which are many OR do you feel relaxed when you read the few genuine words.

Our task is not to know who they are. But to be aware of this reality and plan out to overcome the challenges and be victorious.

The week we passed was an important week as far as the Presidential Elections are concerned. An event that the entire nation was wanting to know happened on the 11th Sunday. The movie makers made that a Major Event. Since that Major event is behind our back the market is now looking for a another major event.

Until then the Market will be bearish. Just because the market is bearish, do you think that you want to bearish as well? Yes some are wanting to be so. But be careful since being bearish or bullish must be for valid reasons.

ASI weekly chart shows that we are now trending within a new resistance zone. Remember it is a resistance zone, not a support zone. The low of the zone is around 5871 and the high is around 6200 points. So the Index is at the lower base of the Resistance Zone. There are only 2 things that can happen here. One will be that the Index will test around 5871 area and reverse to the up. Second is a break down below 5871 and retrace further. As we are near the low base, we have to watch what will happen. If there is a break down, then there are a few psychological areas of support that will be tested, namely 5850, 5800, 5750. These areas represent strength by the Buyers.

The market is yet to move away from the fearfulness amongst so many. That is because it is the Sentiments that have brought many Traders and Investors into the Market at the moment. Some are upset that the June Quarter results of many listed companies are bad. They have fallen short of remembering the Bad Experience the entire Country went through in the latter part of April. That impacted the Economy in no uncertain terms. Hence we had to be prudent in expecting a hit on profits in that quarter.

But we saw the Interest rates both deposits and lending were allowed to be brought down by the Central Bank, when they brought the Interest rates down.This will prevail into the medium term if the Central Bank is serious enough to see increased activity in the Economy. We need to believe that. But some might think that the CBSL is also like the Politicians. Well that's their thinking. Who can change that. But normally the CBSL means business ALWAYS.

Then here and there the Cabinet reduced taxes as well. The hysterical way of increasing taxes and having a close tab on tax payers in the past 4+ years, has a leverage that can be compromised if the present or the future policy makers would like to. That too is something to hope for.